Here is another fantasy scenario that could play out:
  • 401k/IRA accounts get regulatory approval for private Bitcoin cold storage without incurring a penalty or tax event.
  • An ETF allows for "in kind" Bitcoin withdrawals. That is, you can elect to receive Bitcoin directly to your own Bitcoin address. The benefit to this ETF is that they would drain liquidity from all their competitors and there would be an exit fee, but nothing close to the tax/penalty hit of early IRA/401k withdrawal.
  • This creates a stampede from all other ETFs to that one, because every hodler with a 401k dreaming of this scenario will exercise it immediately.
  • Those other ETFs that are fractionally reserving bitcoin will be caught with their pants down and collapse.
That would be a fun day indeed, as long as that "in kind" ETF let's us know their plan here on @sn first.