This paper explores the impact of second-layer solutions, particularly the Lightning Network (LN), on Bitcoin mining fees. The introduction of LN promises enhanced transaction efficiency by facilitating faster and more economical off-chain transactions. Such advancements, while beneficial for network scalability, pose potential challenges to miners' fee revenues-especially from lower-value transactions. We propose a comprehensive framework to assess the ramifications of LN adoption on miners' fee earnings, taking into account the shift of transactions to LN. This framework not only evaluates the direct negative effects on miners' fees but also examines the broader implications for Bitcoin's network value as LN adoption increases, user base expands, and transaction volume grows. Moreover, our framework introduce the potential of LN to on-board millions of new users, particularly through the adoption by Superhubs. This significant expansion in network participation is posited to elevate Bitcoin's overall value, potentially offsetting the initial decrease in mining fees.
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