Another ugly 10YR US Treasury auction.
  • Tail over 3 bps
  • Foreign bidders only 66%
  • Bid to Cover was a measly 2.32
  • and Dealers were stuck with 18% of the auction
So much for flight to safety and imminent rate cuts. This auction was nothing short of abysmal.
103 sats \ 14 replies \ @TomK 7 Aug
It's getting harder to absorb this public debt crap.
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What a bind the fed and treasury are going to be in. Fed will need to cut but no one wants treasuries unless the juice is worth the squeeze.
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And, inflation is still over it's target.
The Fed can be the Treasury buyer of last resort
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Just like the BoJ
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41 sats \ 1 reply \ @zx 7 Aug
Isn't that nearly all central banks?
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To some extent but the BoJ are the worst and longest offenders.
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The US needs to start paying off some of its debt.
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40 sats \ 5 replies \ @TomK 8 Aug
Never gonna happen. Fiat has a growing need for debt inscripted to roll over the debt load +'yield
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RIght, I get that. But if they just paid of some of it...they could strenghten the dollar again.
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40 sats \ 3 replies \ @TomK 8 Aug
no, that doesn't work in the fiat money system because we use credit as money. so when a large debtor like the united states repays and redeems parts of its loan, the money supply drops dramatically. then there is illiquidity and massive interest rate spikes the existing debt becomes unpayable and a death spiral is set in motion. so credit, the money supply, has to keep increasing
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That is true. But it is time for us to suffer a bit so that we can improve our situation.
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40 sats \ 1 reply \ @TomK 8 Aug
yes, but that would collapse the banking system, which is the circuit of the distribution system that makes the big robbery via the credit mechanism around inflation possible in the first place. That will only happen when the entire system collapses and can no longer be sustained
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Its only a matter of time.
Why do they call it a good thing for US?
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No one said it was a good thing.
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Thanks! So much to learn about Treasury Auction! Great post.
Just one confusion. At what point it really becomes good for Bitcoin?
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20 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK 8 Aug
When there're only the CBs left to buy this junk and markets realize there's a risk holding this stuff
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Brrrr! 10y debt rated AAA?
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20 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK 8 Aug
Rating agencies are highly political controlled players in the fiat fraud scheme.
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Rating is inverse of yield
Very Informative. Thanks.
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20 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK 8 Aug
yesterday's bad auction of US government bonds reminds me fatally of an event that happened here in Spain about half a year ago. we have the same problems here in Europe, if not much bigger ones, with government debt that nobody really wants to take on their balance sheet, which is why the ECB has basically been the only main buyer of this garbage for over 10 years. half a year ago, the Spanish government called on people to buy government bonds via newspaper advertisements and the older generation queued up in front of the banks to buy this garbage. probably as a toxic legacy for the grandchildren
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No one wants to buy toilet paper.
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Why buy 10 year notes when 2 year notes have higher yield?
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Did you see the news that Buffett holds more t-bills than the Fed now?
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71 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK 7 Aug
BR, like Tether, clearly is embedded in the growing group of dumping pools for the Treasury
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I feel Buffett is a bit outdated. Is he still on about btc being a scam?
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Definitely
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Him and munger. Both still on their high horse.
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Munger died around 9 months ago so he isn’t around to complain about bitcoin anymore but Buffett hasn’t changed his stance.
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Munger died? I must have missed that news! Wow, he made it to 99!
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JD Vance's wife, Usha, was a partner or associate at Munger Tolles law firm