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110 sats \ 2 replies \ @sami 29 Aug 2022 \ on: Lyn Alden AMA bitcoin
Hey Lyn! Many macro investors have been discussing a potential food shortage and the increasing cost of commodities/food. We've also heard about the energy crisis and the impact that can have on food/agriculture.
I've been intersted in a long term investment position that is betting on increasing cost of food in the next 5 years. (MacroVoices podcast #337 was a great discussion on this investment thesis).
Would holding an agriculture index ETF ($RJA) basically accomplish this? I feel like I'm missing something. It seems too easy.
I generally expect agricultural products to rise in price, albeit in a volatile way. Unlike metals and oils which take years to produce, agriculture can be fixed within a couple seasons if policymakers get serious, and thus I focus on it a bit less.
I play this trend a bit with fertilizers (NTR). I also think ADM is worth a look. I havne't analyzed RJA deeply.
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If you had the time to do the due diligence, would land be a good value capture for this play?
"Mortgages" for land (levered land) may be even better.
To answer myself - it might be.
Food prices going up means farmers should be in higher profit (altho fertilizer cost may be driving that) - they're able to afford more for renting your land
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