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0 sats \ 5 replies \ @grayruby 15 Aug \ on: Consumer Blows Out Expectations in July econ
The consumer is propped up by credit. Their debt binge has to end at some point.
Definitely some wild swings in market perception lately. I think we are in for a raucous few months especially with the election coming.
Yeah debt was able to go crazy with rates so low for so long. Now that rates are up people are sol when it comes to help. Even if they cut them 100 points it would still be in the 4s which is rough. Credit card debt is way up as well and these rates have further increased putting more and more people in the hole. The buy now pay later helped buy people time but again those rates are catching up to them big time.
I've been thinking that debt binge has to end for almost 7-8 years. I imagine I'll be right... someday!
It is odd that the market is ripping and bitcoin is hanging out well under inflation adjusted all time highs.
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Good point. But I do think covid did provide a bit of a reset in the debt numbers. They did drop quite a bit and savings rates increased quite a bit during that time. It was like sobering up for a few hours before going out to party again.
In terms of Bitcoin. I am not surprised we are just ranging. We had the big run to 74k post etfs and then after the halving there was a lot of miner rebalancing to reflect the reward paradigm so a lot of supply came to market. Then you had German gov selling coins. US gov moving coins (whether to sell or not, who knows) and Mt Gox distributions. I think the supply overhangs are weighing on price. Once they get cleared up and the fed starts the cutting cycle, I think we are off to the races. But who knows.
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