The U.S. economy continues to send troubling signals. Following dismal labor market reports, more negative economic data has emerged, hinting at a deepening downturn. The flattening yield curve suggests that the nation might already be slipping into a recession, particularly within the private sector, even as artificial government demand obscures the broader picture.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) dropped sharply in July, registering -0.34 points, down from -0.09 in June 2024. Historically, the CFNAI has averaged around 0 points since 1967, peaking at 6.26 in June 2020 before plummeting to a record low of -18.12 in April 2020. This recent decline underscores the mounting challenges facing the U.S. economy.