The Sahm Rule, an indicator that has signaled every U.S. recession since 1949, flashed red in July amid a weaker jobs report.Created in 2019 by economist Claudia Sahm, the rule states that when the three-month average U.S. unemployment rate increases by 0.5 percentage points from the 12-month low, the U.S. is already in a recession. Yet, this signal may be overstated due to the unique labor market dynamics being seen today.When Has the Sahm Indicator Been Triggered?
Below, we show the historical accuracy of the Sahm Rule, highlighting how the indicator has crossed the threshold of 0.5 percentage points during virtually all past U.S. recessions:
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110 sats \ 0 replies \ @TheMorningStar 3 Sep
I've never taken economics for statistics. They are attached but economics don't work as science and maths. Also, I think US has a very powerful weapon for their economy in the form of dollar which is and will be the world's currency for many decades from now.
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53 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 3 Sep
Hard to tell considering all the job numbers are fudged.
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44 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 3 Sep
This is a very strange economy. We've had so many recession indicators going off, pretty much since the pandemic.
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21 sats \ 1 reply \ @0xbitcoiner OP 3 Sep
It's true that after the pandemic some past dynamics have changed. What struck me most about this indicator is its accuracy in past recessions. Only time will tell if this is yet another indicator that won't work.
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47 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 3 Sep
Yield curve inversion also has a perfect record, up to this point.
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32 sats \ 0 replies \ @fakebookbuzz 3 Sep
Yes, it is true but the illusion that the talking heads are creating including MSM is more than enough to make the world feel secured. But the feeling is not enough so it will happen eventually.
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24 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 3 Sep
I did think to post it when saw it a few days ago but this rule seemed to me a bit odd! While it claims to be exact predictor of a recession, this ain't gonna be ticking right forever!
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @160ed04091 3 Sep
i think for us to determine if the Sahm Rule points to a U.S. recession currently, you would need to compare the latest unemployment data to the Sahm Rule’s criteria. If the recent increase in the unemployment rate meets or exceeds the 0.50 percentage point threshold compared to its lowest point in the past year, it would indicate a higher likelihood of an impending recession.
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