No government is going to allow their citizens to starve or freeze; it’s the same story throughout history with sovereign nations loading up on future debt obligations to solve today’s problems. This just happens to come at a time when a handful of European countries have astronomical public debt-to-GDP ratios well over 100%.

A sovereign debt crisis is brewing in Europe, and the overwhelmingly likely outcome is that the European Central Bank steps in to contain credit risk, perpetuating the devolution of the euro.

It’s not all about energy prices in Europe. The largest Asian economies are net importers of energy and especially natural gas. There’s been a rush to secure natural gas supply in the spot market for the winter across Asia. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices are up 7x in just one year as a result.

A global dollar shortage will lead to a response from the Federal Reserve and/or U.S. Treasury to aid market turmoil, ultimately leading to increased devaluation of the dollar against real goods, services, and assets.

Opportune investors will scoop up hard assets and undervalued equity during times of a global margin call (liquidity/debt crises). Our choice for the other side is bitcoin, but our thesis on a global deleveraging event is unchanged.