In case you already don't know CNBC publishes an "Inside India" where I saw this report which surprisingly was not venomous towards China's recent economic vows. It was rather a realistic narration of the future financial projections for one third of the world's population. The CNBC article cleat indicates that India doesn't stand a chance to overtake China's economy, at least not in 21st century. The reasons given are all true and I too believe that India won't surpass China's economy like the way it's going right now. Be surprised but I'm buying this CNBC newsletter.
The growth rate is politically important for Prime Minister Narendra Modi as he’s set out his vision to make India a developed economy by 2047 – a mere 23 years away and when India will log a whole century as an independent nation.
Meanwhile, China, now an upper-middle-income country, has grown by more than 10% annually for more than 22 years since the 1960s, according to CNBC’s count of World Bank data. India has never managed to achieve that feat.
Currently China's Nominal GDP stands at 18.5 trillion USD which is almost 500% more than that of India's. If India needs to come closer to China's GDP, it at least requires to manage at least a 15% growth rate for the rest of this century to even come closer to China's GDP. However, currently the GDP growth rate in India is just about managing a healthy 7% (approax) yoy increase in the GDP. They say figures won't lie, however I have so many other concerns regarding India for which I'm quite skeptical of it being in the race of even becoming a developed economy by 2047, let alone the question Can India grow as fast as China did? The answer lies in culture and politics rather than economics. So, here's my take on why India might never progress at a speed like China did.
First of all India's 150 B people are just too many for its limited area. India is seventh biggest country by its area but no. 1 I population. If only India had 50 million people and all spoke the same language, Tata, Infosys, Reliance and other big companies combined could make it a developed country. China also had a burst in population but its area size is around 200% more than that of India's. We all know more land means more resources and China surely profited in a big way for this. Also, China didn't have population above 1 billion while it was growing.
TBH, with her size and diversity, India is not an underachiever. She is doing just fine. China had some exceptional advantages as a country that would have been developed long ago if it wasn't for civil war, invasions and western sanctions.
In fact it is proportionately far far less than what it should be. The same could be applied to India but not now.
On cultural front, it seems China is more united than India. The Chinese people have a cultural foundation of thousands of years. India also enjoy a cultural foundation but it is faulty. While most of the China speaks Mandarin, India has at least 22 major languages. While China has Buddhism as a major religion, India is a land of all religions, 70% Hindus, 22% Muslims and 8% others.
On political front, China enjoys a better electoral system. It is similar to that of enterprises. The Chinese presidents are the top leaders in several provinces and have led hundreds of millions of people to obtain them. Unlike India, the head of the country (Prime Minister) may be elected without any prior experience. The Chinese government's system seems to be a one-party ruling, but the Communist Party can stand out from the people through various tests, which in fact is not a case in India. As per latest publications dated 23 March 2024 from Election Commission of India, and subsequent notifications, there are 6 national parties, 57 state parties, and 2,764 unrecognised parties.1
Talking about China's social atmosphere, the ideological liberation activities of China’s May Fourth Movement2, the Cultural Revolution and so on have made China’s feudal system ineffective. Now most people believe that science is rejuvenating and feudalism has almost disappeared. However, the ethnic (caste) system in India is still deeply rooted.
So, when India's corporate media publishes things like *India may leave Chian behind before 2050 or in 21st century, I don't buy any of such. Instead such news always makes me think about how politics under democracy runs on false promises. Recently, I've heard that China is considering to allow Bitcoin mining and other uses, India has been exploring ways how to discourage Bitcoin adoption by Indians.
I can only dream India getting past, China if only India leads the Bitcoin Movement in middle and South East Asia. But, this is not happening right now, nor is India progressing. All claims of India becoming developed (like the one as USA or EU are) are just false hopes that are being regularly served to rather satisfied people of this most diverse country.
So, the question whether India can grow as fast as China once did, the straight answer is "No". It is surely not gonna happen without Bitcoin.