It turns out that there are often wide gaps between the two, which Populace calls the “Social Pressure Index.” People tend to avoid stating their views if they think they’re in the minority.
But here’s the really interesting finding: On a host of bellwether issues, independents are, in private, far more conservative than they will admit to pollsters.
As an independent, non-voter, I can see the point here. Since most pollsters seem to be leftist leaning, many people are just not comfortable letting out their private opinions (cancel culture and such). This leads to something like the “hidden Trump vote” that pollsters cannot get a grasp on. Do you give your honest opinion to any pollster that happens to reach you? If so, why? If not, why not?