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but it certainly looks like it's true considering the state of all the products in the space.
Because of this, I believe that this causes the average person to be overwhelmed with choices. People are overwhelmed with too many choices and gravitate towards easy, frictionless solutions.
Eventually, I think the average person will run their own nodes.
Maybe. If it is installed as an application on Desktop PCs, sure. In a perfect world, everyone would want to run a node, but convincing them on why they should instead of using something easy + custodial is a challenge.
The reality is that the average Bitcoiner is onboarding their grandma, parents, or friends to an umbrel, perhaps without understanding why. Even if they are onboarded and set up, now they have the other challenge, which is to use it without making it a novel event.
"Look honey, I sent some Bitcoins!"
Technology adoption is one thing, but the average person has already adopted the financial credit card habitually, so why fix something that isn't (too) broken?
The cost of the learning is very high right now but eventually it won't be.
I agree, but my proposal is that with BTC Collateralized credit cards, they won’t have to learn anything new; if they do, it will be very minimal.