Last year, I devised a sports betting strategy that I believed had demonstrably positive expected returns, based on the particular betting mechanism at freebitcoin (details here #342765).
After one year and over 500 wagers, I'm up almost 40k with this approach, despite still having about 40k in outstanding bets. Assuming those outstanding bets only break even, that's about 80k in winnings. I realize that may not sound like much for a year's worth of effort, but I started small until I was confident in the methodology.
For those interested in following this approach, I'll start making entries with the RBOA suggested wager distributions. Here are today's:
| Outcome 1 | Outcome 2 | Outcome 3 | Bet Share 1 | Bet Share 2 | Bet Share 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | Man City | Draw | 17% | 61% | 22% |
| Liverpool | Brighton | Draw | 68% | 14% | 18% |
| Man United | Chelsea | Draw | 38% | 37% | 25% |
| Newcastle | Arsenal | Draw | 27% | 49% | 24% |
| Valencia | Real Madrid | Draw | 15% | 63% | 22% |
| Sevilla | Real Sociedad | Draw | 34% | 35% | 31% |
| Barcelona | Espanyol | Draw | 83% | 8% | 9% |
| Atletico Madrid | Las Palmas | Draw | 79% | 6% | 15% |