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Polling paradox: what actually shapes the numbers? (AKA: Polls are Bullshit)goodauthority.org/news/election-poll-vote2024-data-pollster-choices-weighting/
481 sats \ 9 comments \ @StillStackinAfterAllTheseYears 28 Oct Politics_And_Law
I've been saying polls are bullshit for ages (including a few times here); the polls in 2016 and 2020 underestimated Trump by a huge margin, and in 2022 swung the other way to underestimate the Democrats. They exist to sell papers (who want everyone to think the race is close no matter what, because they make money that way) and as campaign tools (who want polls skewed for them because that can get out their vote).
This is a good and detailed piece on how the "science" essentially throws assumptions that may or may not have no basis in reality when reporting their data.
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42 sats \ 2 replies \ @Satosora 28 Oct
Polls are always bullshit, especially on here. Everyone likes bitcoin, and is against the government. If you ask those kind of questions here, its kind of ignorant.
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41 sats \ 1 reply \ @StillStackinAfterAllTheseYears OP 28 Oct
Oh, polls on any discussion site (Twitter, Reddit, even SN) aren't even in the same league.
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satosora 28 Oct
90% of the time, poll of the day is to sat farm. They dont even care about the results, just to put the poll out to get sats. Kind of sad. Asking polls on bitcoin or the government on here especially, there is a large bias.
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21 sats \ 2 replies \ @Bell_curve 29 Oct
There is a strong Howard Dean vibe to the Harris campaign. She has never won a competitive race. She was handed the senate seat by the Democratic Party machine in California because she was highly controllable. Of course, she famously flamed out in the 2020 presidential primary. She was handed the nomination this time when they pushed Biden over the edge. Her entire existence as a political figure rests on a mass media operation to conceal the reality of her support.
Of course, there is the other shenanigans. States like Michigan and Pennsylvania rely on the party machine to “get out the vote” for the Democrat. Both states have Democrat governors with eyes on the 2028 nomination. If Harris wins the election, then the political career of Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro come to an end. They will be too old and too forgotten in 2032. There are also forces in Washington who would like to be rid of Harris and her people too.
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21 sats \ 1 reply \ @StillStackinAfterAllTheseYears OP 29 Oct
I see that with Whitmer -- she's been around forever -- but Shapiro's just really hitting the national stage, and should still have some cachet in '32. But I figured it'd be your guy stepping in post-Kamala, given the way the party's positioning him and his national profile.
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 29 Oct
He will be term limited in 2026 and wants to run for President in 28 or 32. Sooner than later
Same with Gretchen and the dyslexic Gavin
Edit: if Trump wins then 2028 is a race with no incumbent
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 29 Oct
Private internal polls are more reliable because they cost more
USA Today will not endorse either candidate
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @SatsMate 29 Oct
It is mind blowing that we are one of the richest countries in the world, one of the most technologically advanced, and we don't have reliable polling and election data. Things feel extremely divided in this country right now!
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 29 Oct
Polling is expensive
Internal polls are more accurate because they are more expensive and private.
The public polls from media and television are less accurate than internal polls.
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