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In a nuanced economic performance, September's data reveals a complex interplay of inflationary pressures, labor market resilience, and market expectations. The latest economic indicators paint a picture of measured stability and underlying strength.
Inflation Landscape:
  • PCE Year-over-Year: 2.1% (Steady)
  • Core PCE: 2.7% (Marginally Exceeding Expectations)
  • Monthly PCE Growth: Subtle but Persistent
Labor Market Vitality:
  • Initial Jobless Claims: 216,000 (Significantly Below Forecast)
  • Continuing Claims: 1,862,000 (Under Projected Levels)
  • Unemployment Metrics Signal Economic Robustness
These numbers must look good because we are going into the election. Everything seems to be showing "good".
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It'll be very interesting to see if these trends hold next month.
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If Trump wins, are they going to flip the numbers to make it his problem? Or will he publish low numbers to out everyone. There many ways it could go down.
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US consumer confidence has improved due to falling inflation, although I think they still remain cautious ahead of the November presidential election, but it is a very positive sign. Looks like it's the best since the pandemic
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