While I am sure there will be a ton of huge moves (Atlanta and LA Angels already made a trade) and shockers this off-season by far the biggest shaker and mover of the whole free agency is that of Juan Soto. At just 26 years old and coming off arguably his best season both in the field and at bat he is the mixture of youth AND skill that any team would die to have. As you would expect though no matter how you cut it the price to have someone at this level is going to be high... very very high.
Last off-season we saw the best (and only) two-way player hit the market with Shohei Ohtani and while we all knew he was going to cost a fortune I am not sure anyone had 10 years at $700 million as what he would get. With the World Series win the season after signing him the Dodgers could argue they already got the return on their investment that they were aiming for. I mean in his first year without throwing a pitch due to recovering from Tommy John he hit an absurd .310 with 54 home runs, 130 RBIs, and the biggest thing I don't think anyone saw coming 59 stolen bases making him the FIRST AND ONLY member of the 50/50 club.
Soto though wasn't as good as Ohtani as he hit .288 with 41 home runs, 109 RBIs, and just 7 stolen bases. Compared to the rest of MLB Soto has what is called "competitive speed" at 26.8 ft/sec. Competitive speed ranges from 23 to 30 ft/sec and an average sprint speed of 27. At that speed, while he could easily improve in the stolen bases category and probably easily get it to the 20-30 range much above that is not as likely without him increasing his sprint speed pretty significantly. A huge plus though for Soto is that he will be two years younger than Ohtani who was 28 last off-season.
So taking a 10-year $700 million contract off the table I see negotiations going one of two ways. He will either pull a Bryce Harper and go for length and thus a less average yearly salary or something like what Trevor Baur did with a short-term high-salary deal.
Looking at Soto's teammate Aaron Judge as an example he has a contract that pays him $40 million a year on a 9-year $360 million deal. For a long term, I don't see how he signs for less than $35 million a year for 14 years (through his age 40 season). That would total out to a whopping $490 million and well I have to say with his Agent being Scott Boros that number realistically has to go up to $500 million because Boros is all about the big money and a cool $500 million would stick out to anyone. Boros is a known opt-out fan and looking at similar contracts with Manny Machado the opt-out was halfway through his 10-year deal but with Soto he could likely move it up to after 3 years. This would let Soto hit the market going into his age 29 year aka still his prime.
The other idea that I could see him also doing is something crazy like a 2 or 3-year contract at $60/65 million a season. I would say higher but given the streaming issues with over a third of the teams that zaps the bidding war to some extent. Again this would put Soto back on the market and WITHOUT the ability to be tagged again by the team that signs him going into his age 29 season.
The biggest sleeper team he could go to would either be Detriot or Washington in my mind. Everyone else from your Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants are easy to see.
598M/13 years
I think he will go to the Mets.
My sleeper team that no one is expecting is the Angels.
What do you think?
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I would say that if its under 600M there will be an opt out after 3 or 4 years.
I like the sleeper I just think the Angels owner is a POS and wont do it. They also just traded for Solar giving up Canning and they didn't have good starting pitching in the first place.
The team that I think will pay the most no matter what would be the Giants after losing the sweep stakes so many times and just dumping stupid money on him. They also have a weakness in the outfield
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Good thoughts. I don’t know what the Angels are doing. They have like one decent starter. Canning isn’t great but he is a good depth piece. They are nuts to trade starting pitching when it is their biggest weakness.
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Exactly my thoughts!
For the Angels I hate to say it but they are going to suck till Arte Moreno sells the team. He teased the fans a year or two ago when he looked into it. Its like Jerry Jones and the Dallas Cowboys.... Ya cant win with an owner like that who is going to meddle and screw everything up
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We talked about that on the pod. @Undisciplined is a Jerry Jones truther though. Haha
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40 sats \ 1 reply \ @Cje95 OP 1 Nov
Ooof..... Sad to hear he doesnt want to win the Super Bowl lol
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He isn't a Cowboys fan. He is a Raiders fan so don't worry there are no Super Bowls in his future haha, but when I brought up the same point you mentioned about Jerry's meddling he didn't seem convinced.
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