6 sats \ 2 replies \ @denlillaapan 15h \ on: The US elections offer many lessons Politics_And_Law
polls are probabilistic and on comparatively small samples. A few points one way or the other can easily go past them but over millions of voters it's gonna look like landslide
  • plenty of modelling (say, Nate Silver) struggled with one-off effects in 2020 and 2022
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21 sats \ 1 reply \ @SimpleStacker 14h
There's also no real way to control for the selection effects of who decides to respond to polls, not to mention whether people answer polls honestly.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 10h
Public polls from ABC, NYT, WaPo have ulterior motives like voter suppression
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