177 sats \ 9 replies \ @Undisciplined 7 Nov \ on: Polymarket takes victory lap after being more accurate than the polls Politics_And_Law
Nate Silver had a great point about how difficult it is to evaluate who had the most accurate prediction, since people are offering win probabilities and we only observe one realization.
Given the probabilities assigned by Polymarket, the observed outcome was actually very unlikely, so it isn't obvious how much credit they deserve. There might have been other predictions where the colors don't match perfectly, but the actual outcome had a higher probability.
All that said, I do think prediction markets are the best method for doing this sort of thing.
This is not the kind of HOT TAKE that I look for from @grayruby ~Stacker_Sports podcast.
I demand spicier!
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Nate Silver DESTROYED this claim!
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Who had a 100k bet?
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and bitcoin market cap exceeds Silver now
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I too listen to his “Risky Business” podcast.
No in the end Keith chickened out and never actually paid into the bet thru the third party
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He was not.