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The potential return of your bet shown in the UI is your potential return at that current moment in time, but that potential return changes based on the odds. We currently use the parimutuel betting system which calculates payouts based on the total amount wagered. You are allocated a reward in proportion to how much you contributed to your side. The actual percentage ROI you would be rewarded varies until the bet resolves, and that percentage ROI is not currently locked in.
We're looking into building a Bitcoin-based LMSR prediction market that enables you to buy/sell shares where you can lock in a fixed percentage return at some moment in time. It's the system most prediction markets use, and it's superior to the parimutuel betting mechanism for forecasting events.
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Ok, thanks for the clarification. Makes sense, otherwise there'd be free money on the table with some of the current bets where betting on both outcomes at the same time would yield assured profits.
I should have guessed from this message on your main page:
Winners split the losers sats All bets on one outcome go into a pot. When the event occurs, the pot is split proportionally among the winning bets.
Maybe adding somewhere it's parimutuel betting could clarify things further.
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For example my bet-
solomonsatoshi@getalby.com 110100 25351 134350 pending 21/10/2024, 5:40:39 pm
is still pending
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Did you receive any payout?
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Received a small one of about 600sats but the larger one of 134350 sats (to alby wallet) -
solomonsatoshi@getalby.com 110100 25351 134350 pending 21/10/2024, 5:40:39 pm
remains unpaid.
Correction! - it just arrived.
cheers
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Any news on when the larger bets will be paid out?
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We're paying them out manually as there have been many errors/bugs/pending payments. We can get to yours ASAP.
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Ok
BTW the LMSR system would be a huge improvement as the current system highly incentivises people to leave any betting to the very last minute.
If the current parimutuel system remains in place you would ideally need to put a closing date for placing bets sufficiently in advance of the event to prevent people gaming the system.
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Yeah it's our biggest priority besides fundraising—building the LMSR market maker with Bitcoin and Lightning. That market structure would provide much better incentives for accurate forecasting.
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No its not locked in- the amount you get ultimately (if you predict correctly) can be very different depending on what bets are placed after yours.
Yes the actual percentage varies until the bet resolves.
I think this is a problem they have (apart from not paying out larger bets!) in that there is no incentive to lace early bets-
for example in the bet on whether BTC would reach USD$80k by 5th Nov you could wait until the last day when it was clear that it would not likely reach $USD80k and place your bet at the last moment.
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potential returnfor a bet, is that the amount I am sure to get in case the bet resolves in my favor? Is the percentage locked in from the moment I make the payment? Or does the actual percentage vary until the bet resolves?