Heaps of people don't have accounts on exchanges and use Bitcoin.
I don't think there's any accuracy in number of people.
You should focus on more real numbers, like the hashpower of the network.
How does hashpower determine adoption (the number of people holding or transacting with Bitcoin)?
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Hashpower is an indirect measurement of adoption.
Basically the more hashpower, the more trust in the network, therefore more people using it.
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Hash rate correlates more closely with Bitcoins price (and the delta with energy costs)...for example a large drop in hash rate (with a drop in price) does not necessarily mean less adoption:
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Transaction volume is better I think. Hash rate does not have to scale (linearly) with adoption.
(Not saying that transaction volume is a good metric. It's just better than hash rate imo.)
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