177 sats \ 4 replies \ @zuspotirko OP 13 Nov \ on: Markets are pricing in a 1/20 chance Trump will be assasinated before Jan 20th Politics_And_Law
I might have invented the assassination part for clickbait reasons but there are not many other possibilities for Trump to not get inaugurated.
1/20 is a lot. Certainly higher than the natural chance of dying from a heart attack.
Theoretically this could also mean he steps down before inauguration. I don't think this is what markets expect. But theoretically a president-elect can legally choose to step down before inauguration & the line of succession would come into play. Which would automatically mean president Vance.
Conclusion: this is an odd stat. Anybody got any better explanations than my 3 suggestions?
Besides assassination/death, there's also the possibility that Democrats try to stage some kind of electoral college revolt/coup/lawfare.
I recall hearing some noise about using a constitutional clause that says traitors can't be president, and since he "incited insurrection" on Jan 6th, 2021, he's not constitutionally eligible to be president.
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I can follow but I don't see anyone make this bet now.
Would have been an interesting bet a month ago. But now Harris has already conceded.
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I might have invented the assassination part for clickbait reasons
How would you feel when you click on this and you see something completely different? Heavy downzap for this.
but there are not many other possibilities for Trump to not get inaugurated.
Stating personal conclusions as some kind of fact is a classic clickbait, arguing why your personal conclusion might make sense doesn't make your clickbait better
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Well, markets can't talk and therefore we don't know what the market is actually pricing in with this gap for sure.
I can't think of many other reasons other than assassination. After two assassination attempts ... what else could it be?
So that's just my best guess. As I already said: the stepping down or medical incident reasons are probably close to zero. What else is there?
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