USD/BTC = $90,996 Block 870,580 1M sats = $909 One share of FLD = 12,012 sats ($10.94) 83 shares of FLD per 1M sats

As the bitcoin fiat price pumps the dollar equivalent of a million sats is starting to become a non trivial amount.

Most Americans can’t save $400 for an emergency. Once the Bitcoin price reaches $100k, 1 million sats will equal $1,000. At the federal minimum wage rate it will take working at McDonalds about 138 hours (before taxes) to earn enough fiat to purchase 1 million sats.

At this rate middle class and upper middle class Americans are being priced out of having the capability to buy 1 million sats with little to no impact to their household finances. $1,000 is hard to come by for most Americans. 1 million sats is becoming an amount that most Americans can strive for as a savings goal. And it is enough to seed other investments in which the return would be worthwhile.

What public bitcoin companies are actually worth investing 1 million sats in? I ask this because most bitcoiners who have strong conviction have about 95 to 99% of their net worth in Bitcoin.

Thus is it wise to invest 1 million sats in a bitcoin business that has the potential to return a growth rate that is higher that bitcoin in fiat terms (which I think is 63% on average) or even better pay out Bitcoin dividends per share once we cross that rubicon. Or should investors skip and just stack sats. For those investors/savers who are risk adverse the answer is simple. Just be humble and stack sats. But for others who want to use their capital to not only impact the world but also earn a return this is something you can think about.

Fold ( ticker: FLD) is a bitcoin financial services company with the mission of getting bitcoin to as many people as possible. They offer a suite of products that allows their customers to acquire bitcoin. Customers can buy bitcoin with some of the lowest fees (via a $10 a month subscription fee) and earn bitcoin via rewards. Fold has a debit card partnership with Visa which allows customers to earn bitcoin back on every debit card swipe. Customers can also earn sats back buy buying gift cards on the app. Recently Fold is positioning its self as the platform to seamlessly covert from dollars to bitcoin and making bitcoin the unit of account for personal finance. With offering sats back on ACH payments they are uniquely positioned to capture market share from traditional banks. The company has come a long way (AR, lightning, massive sats back with spinning the daily wheel) it appears they have found their grove and could be a very profitable bitcoin business offering great services for bitcoiners.

Since Fold is going public via a SPAC not much known about the company. We do know they have a strategic bitcoin reserve with about 1,000 BTC on the balance sheet but nothing more is known. Fold CEO Will Reeves is hopeful the SPAC will be done Q1 2025 and more information about the company will be released.

🐂 Bull case is simple. As bitcoin adoption grows so will fold. Bitcoin is on the cusp of a raging fiat bull market. Nothing gets the masses into bitcoin then massive price pumps. Fold is ready and battle tested to onboard new users and use their suite of products to keep customers using their application. I am sure they have more planned on the road map as shared by CEO Reeves which will increase the business opportunities for Fold. They also stack bitcoin as a strategic reserve which will work well in their favor during bull markets.

🐻 The Bear case is bitcoin fails of course but other risks are at play too. They depend on many third parties. Sutton bank, Visa, Bitgo, for bitcoin custody. From the words of Nick Szabo trusted third parties are security holes. If any one of these partnerships fail Fold is doomed. The Fold team in the early days was supposed to be a lightning application. They pivoted and went the Visa debit card route. I really do hope they get back to the lightning road map. A strong example of this would be rewarding customers who pay with lightning the highest sats back rewards and pivot away from Visa. I hope the CEO and team don’t lose sight of the vision of bitcoin in pursuit of fiat gains but time well tell.

I am a big fan of fold! I own shares now. (Disclaimer) but is it worth for me to dip into my cold storage sell 1M sats to buy 83 fold shares now?

I rather keep the 1 million sats today! Fold shares are still pretty cheap at 12k sats per share but they still need to complete the SPAC process and once that is done it is quite possible all the insiders cash out thus dumping on you causing the share price to go down.

With bitcoin going on a bull run you could miss a lot of upside by selling now to buy FLD shares. If you have a large Sat stack this may not matter to you much but if you are just starting your stacking journey I wouldn’t recommend it.

If you work a fiat job and wish to support Fold and the CEO then sure buy a few shares here and there and work your way up to 83 shares but at this moment I much rather have 1M sats then 83 FLD shares.

I am hoping Fold will pay a bitcoin dividend or constantly improve the sats per share your fold shares will give you but fold is at the beginning of their growth phase and the business model as it stands today doesn’t get me excited to sell 1M sats to buy 83 FLD shares.