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0 sats \ 3 replies \ @Cje95 OP 4 Dec \ parent \ on: Quick Dive into South Korean History & Why The Presidents Move Opened Old Wounds Politics_And_Law
Russia has not only gotten its ass kicked in Ukraine but now they are running in Syria. That whole country is only afloat because of the war and while people like to point out how they have a low debt-to-GDP ratio well they can't raise any debt so that's kinda how you pull that off!
Iran has seen its proxies get murked across the board. Trump hates them and will give Israel everything he can to prevent issues with Iran.
North Korea is consistently starving to death and let's not forget the Russian Mail bloggers who are pissed at Russia and North Korea over not only how they are getting better treatment but also the people have full access to the internet for once and found porn lmao.
That leaves us with China which is staring down a hidden debt bomb with its local and provincial governments that is estimated to be in the trillions. While the US has some segments that could be linked to being similar the US economy keeps moving forward and the same cannot be said about China.
Do they have ambitions to break free? Yes, are they capable at all of it right now? Not in the slightest. Russia in particular is in a freefall and if Assad falls in Syria they lose their only warm water port. That port and base is required for their operations in Africa and the Middle East if it goes away their old-school logistics will fall apart much like we have seen in Ukraine. Russia can't keep up the meat grinder assaults and finally, Russian mail bloggers are saying how bad it has gotten and how they are running out of people. North Korea won't allow it because it would look so so bad.
First Ukraine took out so much of Russia and now Israel dismantled not only Hamas but Hezzbloah, Houthi's and even the country of Iran itself. Iran lost a heck of a lot more than people realize and one of their nuclear sites was erased. They thought no one knew about this specific site and funny enough Israel hit it because the US only used the publically known list of sites.
Agree Russia and Iran have been hit hard but at what cost to the US and its allies? Huge.
At the same time China gets discounted oil and gas from Iran and Russia and guaranteed sales of multiple manufactured goods to Iran and Russia.
The wars have cemented Iran and Russias dependence upon China.
The wars have also amply demonstrated that you can be sanctioned by the west but you can still maintain a functional economy via China buying your exports and providing you with the manufactured goods you cannot yourself produce.
China and its military proxy allies now demonstrate independence from the SWIFT USD hegemony is already possible.
The wars have provided testing for both Russian and Iranian military technology and undoubtedly improvements will be in the pipeline if not already in production.
Russia is now forced to supply China with whatever China wants- including Russian nuclear submarine technology.
N.Korea and Iran have both in turn profited from Russias invasion of Ukraine and if Trump cedes territory to Russia all the Chinese Axis nations will see this as victory and they will be encouraged to further their territorial expansion.
The USA is on the back foot because China has won the trade war and dominates global trade in manufactured goods and increasingly the US/West cannot compete on such high value markets as EVs and energy technology.
The USA cannot afford to sanction China directly as this would collapse some of the largest US corporates.
The US still has a lead on brute force military but cannot employ it directly and as China gains ground on multiple fronts including non SWIFT trade payments the position of the US and its military and monetary tributes such as Japan, the EU, the UK and S.Korea becomes weaker.
If one more large oil producer moves to payment in Yuan, the (already insolvent) USD hegemony empire will be over very swiftly.
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I'm going to follow up on this tomorrow cause its 11:45 here in DC but I want to drop a few things...
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China has begun cutting off Russia Chinese banks under CCP direction are avoiding Russia now because of the SWIFT sanctions which you mention. That's why they went to North Korea I mean lets be honest does Noeth Korea scream the best military weapons? No they are very outdated.
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Of course Iran and Russian weapons will improve so will Noeth Korea it would be wild if they didn't I mean literally in battle you learn what works or not. Its why so many small to midsize Western military companies give Ukraine their weapons/tech because bam it works. Look at AeroVironment if you want a publically traded company and the VAMPIRE System if you want a DARPA project.
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Neither Russia nor Iran have a functional economy and Russian sources that are huge on X and Russian Media have said now they cannot afford for the war to end because the economy is so messed up. Look at the price of butter and the fact they have to put freaking basic security chips in butter to prevent theifs
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Iran and NK might be up now but what in 6 months? Russia is running out of reserves located in their country and the 100 of billions they have in the West well has been going to Ukraine now.
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Look up the Chinese/BYD EV graveyards. China has pumped up BYD but they mothballs them immediately.
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China and Russia face a population cliff and history has shown when this happens leaders try to make the last hurrah moment which we are seeing with Russia.
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BRICS isn't going to work. Do you really think those countries can come to an agreement on whose in control and gets to set the pegs? No that's just a stupid idea and its why it has never worked before and a single country and currency reign supreme. At the end of the day what backs the USD is pure military might and China isn't in the ballpark. Lets not forget the purge they didn't earlier this year when they found out a bunch of their missiles in silos were filled with water and not fuel because the soldiers used the fuel to cook food.
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The US is by far leading energy innovation we did sodium nuclear reactors which China claims is brand new in the 1950’s. Energy innovation look at heat pumps and Fervo Energy. That's innovation China isn't in the ballpark. Nor does China have a clue about sustainable aviation fuel which US and other Western companies have produced for years.
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1- selectively yes to maintain appearances but at the same time using Hong Kong banks to route funds into the USD SWIFT system on behalf of Iran and Russia.
2-Yes and so the Chinese Axis are testing their capability up against those of the west- this is only the beginning of WW3.
3-Iran and Russia do still have economies capable of supporting major military operations against the west. Their citizens might not all be living well but that is beside the point- both Iran and Russia are effective military proxies for China and its challenge to the US western imperialism.
4-Russia and China have just opened a second massive pipeline via which Russia can pump more black gold into the veins of China. Sure the sales are at a discount to global prices but Russia still has a steady flow of income all the same...and Chinas economy gets discounted fuel.
5-BYD can produce batteries equivalent to Teslas but at half the price. Without Trumps Tariffs Musks Tesla is facing disaster. In the long term Chinas dominance over EVs, batteries, PVs, and other energy efficiency technology and manufacturing is overwhelming since this was made a priority in the early 2000s. The US economy remains hugely bloated, inefficient and dependent upon ruinous fracking.
6- Chinas economy is moving up the scale of development from crude manufacturing to higher and higher value added technology such as the EVs, robotics, aerospace, nanotech, biotech and energy related areas such as solar, batteries, nuclear, wind and hydro.
7- BRICS Pay will adopt the Chinese CBDC eYuan as its base protocol. It is a long game shifting payments from the legacy USD SWIFT banking system and traditional allies of the US will stay on the old analogue SWIFT protocol a while longer but the truth is all nations gain by trading with China where very few actually gain from trade with USA.
China has won the trade war- it offers commodities producers and buyers of manufactured goods a better deal- pure and simple.
8-See 5 above. In summary the US is obese bloated and hugely inefficient in its use of energy.
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