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66 sats \ 3 replies \ @freetx 9 Dec \ on: The Fallacy of Store of Value vs. Medium of Exchange bitcoin
It makes no sense to use something that is gaining 60% per year as a MoE. Its "Laslo's
Pizza Syndrome". Those who use that as a SoV will do better than those that spend it on coffee (and that coffee will cost them 10x in a few years)
At some point, if BTC stabilizes and starts growing at ~10% per year, then MoE will take off.
But it will take us many years to find out what is the stabilization point. The only way we will know is when we see it proven to us over a 3-5 year timeframe.
You are right about the incentive direction. Its the inverse of an inflationary money. If your paycheck drops in value as fast as it does in hyper inflation you rush to the store to buy what you need while you can.
But how do we make sure we build the ecosystem? Spend and replace. But that's not as much an economical choice as an ideological choice. Few, will do that. The good news is that no one spends dollars out of ideology.
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Let me play the devil's advocate.
Pretend that someone has only Bitcoin. No dollars, not fiat money just Bitcoin they have no fiat.
They are hungry for groceries. Their car needs gas, and they have to pay their electric bill and their rent to have shelter.
Are they going to spend the Bitcoin? Hell ya they are.
"Oh but it might go up" ya no kidding. So might the S&P, so might NVIDIA. But you are hungry and need gas in your car so you will spend your Bitcoin to provide for yourself. You are not going to waste it... but 10,000 years of human consumption proves that humans consume and so you will spend to provide for yourself.
I see a lot of comments about Bitcoin that 'noone will spend it' because it could 'go up' well if it's the only thing you have access to... going up is irrelevant. One needs to eat and pay the bills people will spend it when they have to.
Note that I did not say 'sell it'... but spend it directly at the grocery store which is the future.
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You are also correct, obviously. As you say you could make the same argument about pretty much anything if that is all you have...
There are also people that make dumb economic decisions that seem counter-intuitive.
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