Unfortunately, there is no reason to expect any change to the current trend. In spite of much talk about the so-called “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) leading to big budget cuts, there is virtually no chance of any sizable cuts to spending in the current political climate. The budget process is dominated by the Congress—as is constitutionally required—and recommendations from the executive branch are generally DOA when they reach Congress. Moreover, the first Trump administration was notable for very large increases in spending, not for “efficiency.” The first Trump administration, for example, rung up a 2019 deficit of nearly one trillion, making it the largest deficit ever seen during a period that was neither recessionary nor wartime. Trump than signed off on the mega-deficit of 3.1 trillion during the 2020 fiscal year.