Screw your definition of success. That's a NGU speculators definition. It's not what Bitcoin was created to do...if anything the treatment of Bitcoin as a speculative commodity is driving its downfall.

Read the Whitepaper.

Has it succeeded as a P2P payments protocol? No.

But to answer your narrowly defined question- if Bitcoin remains as primarily a speculative commodity asset where everyone is just seeking fiat denominated gain it is almost certain to fail at some point. Already institutions (mainly Coinbase) have gained custody of over 10% of all Bitcoin and that Bitcoin cannot be used as a P2p payments protocol.

What you need to understand is Bitcoins value is based upon its ability (or lack of) to provide an alternative to the fiat monetary hegemony over MoE/payments.

Look at SWIFT and how important it is to US imperialism- Bitcoin was created to provide an alternative but has been cleverly and slyly prevented from becoming a vehicle for payments while being allowed as a speculative commodity is leading to ever increasing institutional capture and control.

If you still dont get it watch this-