Description

Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve to YES if the US weighted average tariff reaches at least 6% in any quarter of 2025. As of Q2 2024, the weighted average tariff is 2.4%, with the highest level during Trump’s previous presidency reaching 3.5%. The market will resolve based on calculations by Callum Williams, senior economics writer at The Economist. • If by the fourth quarter of 2025, the tariff has not crossed 6%, the market will resolve to NO. • If any initial estimate or revision for Q1-Q3 2025 shows the tariff exceeding 6% while the market is open, the market will resolve to YES immediately. • The Q4 number will be based on initial data, and the market will close once that data is available. If a different president takes office during 2025, the market will continue to resolve based on the US weighted tariff average under the same rules. If Callum Williams is unavailable, a suitable replacement will be found. Data Source: US Weighted Average Tariff (FRED): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e Callum Williams on X (Twitter): https://x.com/econcallum