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104 sats \ 4 replies \ @Coinsreporter 6 Jan \ on: Dollar As Reserve Currency Share Loses Ground econ
It's okay but there's still not a single currency in the world except Euro that's even succeeded to climb up to 2 digits in %share.
It's unlikely that dollar is gonna lose its throne in around another 50 years, maybe after that but that would need a more serious effort by India and China to establish a joint currency with so many other nations.
China already dominates trade in commodities and manufactured consumer goods.
No country can afford not to trade with China.
China is already demonstrating that it can facilitate ongoing trade with countries that are sanctioned from SWIFT. Iran and Russia would not be viable let alone able to wage war on the west without Chinas ongoing purchase of their exports, supply of imports and arrangement of payment outside of SWIFT.
The USA is no longer dominant or even competitive in manufactured goods. It is entirely reliant on its USD monetary hegemony and the seigniorage and interest this delivers.
Without USD hegemony the USA would be very swiftly Insolvent.
Its not a time span of 50 years but more like 5-10 that we are talking about.
If another major oil producer (Saudis?) switches from USD to Yuan payments then the USD could lose hegemony very soon...and anyway the trend is already established and the trend is decline of USD and movement toward Chinese dominance.
Monetary hegemony has always derived from dominance in trade.
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Its not a time span of 50 years but more like 5-10 that we are talking about.
It's not that you should only be looking at manufacturing cheap tech to export by China. India is slowly getting traction as a competition to chinese cheap tech production.
Until or unless china gets support from other economies, yuan isn't even going to reach double digits.
5-10 years is a very short duration to challenge the hegemony of USD. It's simple because Yuan (China) is struggling to make an impact as acceptable as Dollar (USA) has.
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This may help explain ~
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How much of the trade using Yuan is even recorded by US proxy institutions like the IMF?
Russia is now dependent upon China both as a buyer of its oil and gas and as a supplier of manufactured goods and as a facilitator of payments for these trades.
Russia is now providing China with nuclear submarine technology.
India and Russia have a long standing mutual trade role so with Russia now dependent upon China India is also drawn into Chinas sphere.
India is not a focused economy or political entity - it is more preoccupied with its own internal problems and tension with Pakistan than being capable of wider power projection let alone strategically significant international trade.
China does not need the explicit support of other economies it is rather the converse- all nations need trade with China or they will suffer significant economic loss.
China is incrementally reverse engineering the global monetary system, via the portal through which the west originally imposed its hegemony, Hong Kong. It may take some time but it is already in progress.
Certainly China is in no hurry to see the transition as a gradual transition is less likely to be disruptive but it has to be noted that China and the US are currently at war, by proxy, in multiple locations across Ukraine and the middle east.
Chinas demonstration that it can support Iran and Russia even when they have been sanctioned by the mighty US, and that Iran and Russia can still engage in significant and ongoing attacks on US allies does not go un-noticed, except among those who do not wish to see.
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