agree, but one other improvement lightning offers is speed. 

traders can arbitrage different exchange rates in an instant on lightning, and may be willing to pay higher fees for large transactions just for the ability to settle a payment right away. 

I do think the micro-transaction use case is a powerful one though. Really hard for me to guess where avg transaction size goes from here.

bitcoin

Will average Lightning transaction size go up, down, or remain flat over time?

considering one of the lightning's major selling points is microtransactions at near zero cost I'd guess that the real size of transaction is/will be smaller. 

For example how do you account for streaming sats? Is the entire stream one transaction or every sat sent is its own (technically thats correct). Tipping, streaming sats etc should bring the global average down significantly since there is an endless amount of transactions that are possible and usable on lightning that just don't make sense on Visa or Mastercard. 

