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Posts like this are genuinely entertaining for me. We’re so early. 

Putting this in the beginners territory, for any beginners who want practice debunking these noob level takes. 

Personally, I’m chuckling at the fact that so many of us would be overjoyed to buy bitcoin at a discount again. lol.

Post is pasted below, here’s the link to it. Smash that follow button, plebs 😂

🔴 BITCOIN: ALL THAT GLITTERS IS NOT GOLD 🔴
🔍 Introduction: I have to be blunt: the hype around Bitcoin being a "safe-haven" asset is dangerously misleading. Sure, it sounds good—the idea of a digital gold that can protect your wealth. But when you look at the reality, it’s an entirely different story. Over the past 7 years, Bitcoin has dropped more than 50% FIVE TIMES. Compare that to the S&P 500—considered a "risky" asset—which has only experienced that level of correction FIVE times in the last 100 years. Ask yourself: Does this really sound like an asset you want to put your hard-earned money in? If you read this far it’s probably NO!
📈 The Bitcoin Dilemma: I’ve been following Bitcoin for years, and I’m seeing a deeply troubling pattern. People want it both ways: they dream of Bitcoin soaring 10% in a single day, filling their pockets overnight, but they also want it to act like gold—a steady, reliable asset to turn to in times of crisis. But here’s the reality: Bitcoin is wild and unpredictable. It can rocket to the moon, yes—but it can also plummet down like a stone. If you're in this for the long haul, you’re in for a rollercoaster ride that could have you reaching for the valium.
🚨 The "Line of Death": I’ve been watching Bitcoin’s price since 2017, and I see a chilling pattern. It repeatedly hits a "line of death"—and when it does, disaster strikes. In 2018, it fell 84%. In mid-2021, it dropped 56%. Again, in 2022, it plunged another 78%. Last month, Bitcoin hit that exact same line again, and if history repeats itself, we’re looking at a potential 73% drop—taking Bitcoin’s price down to around $30,000. That’s a steep fall from its recent high of $108,000. Imagine the pain that could bring to investors who thought they were in dreamland, only to watch their wealth go up in a puff of smoke.
⏳ The Coming Storm: I know some people are convinced Bitcoin will reach $200,000 this year, but history and technical analysis suggest a very different picture. Bitcoin has always corrected hard after hitting the “line of death”. If you’re holding on to Bitcoin, you might want to ask yourself: are you prepared to lose all you have gained?
⚠️ Why I’m Sounding The Alarm: With the U.S. facing the real possibility of a recession in 2025, and Bitcoin’s history of plummeting during market turmoil (don’t forget the 63% drop during Covid), it’s time to be honest with ourselves. Bitcoin is not the secure asset it’s been made out to be. If you’re still betting the farm on it, you might want to seriously think again. Don’t let the hype and promises of easy riches fool you. The crash could be coming a lot sooner than you think.
Two fallacies immediately jump out at me:
  1. Straw manning
    Bitcoiners never said there wouldn't be price volatility. When we say it's like digital gold, we mean that it has similar properties to gold; namely, a limited supply which makes it useable as a store of value. But because Bitcoin is much younger than gold, and because there is a lot of misinformation out there, it doesn't necessarily trade like gold.
  2. Cherry picking
    He focuses only on the downturns but not on the bull runs. If you zoom out, it's the one of the best performing assets in the last 10 years. Not that I recommend people have this fiat-minded view of Bitcoin, but I'm only going by the author's own standards, which is purely about increasing fiat gains.
And lastly, I'm not sure what the name of the fallacy is, but he is not helping anyone out there understand what bitcoin actually is. All he sees is numbers going up and down on a screen. To me, that's high-school level financial analysis. Sorry but it is.
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I think that third fallacy is a post hoc ergo propter hoc: i.e. bitcoin fell after reaching this trend line in the past, therefor it fell because it reached that trendline.
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he is not helping anyone out there understand what bitcoin actually is.
I don't think he knows, haha
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30 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 9h
100% he is not even describing bitcoin at all. You could replace bitcoin with any speculative asset and his points would work...
That is if you are a lazy trader that only looks at charts. To be fair that's a massive amount of people IMO. Gamblers.
There's always going to be followers. Those that follow the crowd and buy some stock because they think it will go up. These people will buy bitcoin when it goes up and Apple when it goes up.
Bitcoiners understand what it is and value it much higher than its market price on any given day.
The reality is that bitcoin is a speculative asset to most people. This of course is completely subjective. You could say the same of a new penny stock company. People have no clue what it is or its value but buy it on hype. The owner and employees know what they are doing is incredible so they hold stock. They have knowledge. Its not a speculation for them. Its conviction.
  • Bitcoiners have conviction
  • Traders speculate
  • Bitcoiners want bitcoin
  • Traders want fiat
We are very different.
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30 sats \ 0 replies \ @random_ 11h
If you bought the open on any given day, how many days might you expect to wait for the fiat value to double? Using exchange data from Binance ranging from 8-17-2017 to 12-31-2024 Number of days where the open has not yet increased by 100%: 417 Minimum open price in "not-yet" list: $54,342.80 Percentage of days where the fiat value eventually increased by 100%: 84.52% Statistics: Mean: 450.02 days Median: 318.00 days Mode: 51.00 days Standard Deviation: 372.36 days Maximum: 1402.00 days 25th Percentile: 155.00 days 75th Percentile: 631.00 days 95th Percentile: 1176.00 days <-- 3 years, 2 months, and 20 days
NFA GFY
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14 sats \ 0 replies \ @joda 11h
When someone says "I'm Sounding The Alarm" and "history and technical analysis suggest" -- you can go ahead and close that tab.
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Only buy Bitcoin if you want to be part of the peaceful and constructive revolution building an alternative to the state imposed fiat monopoly effectively operated by the fiat debt slavery bankers cartel who own your allegedly democratic government.
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 9h
Imagine the pain that could bring to investors who thought they were in dreamland, only to watch their wealth go up in a puff of smoke.
Grow up. This is how free markets work. If you want to gamble you will get burned.
I know some people are convinced Bitcoin will reach $200,000 this year, but history and technical analysis suggest a very different picture. Bitcoin has always corrected hard after hitting the “line of death”. If you’re holding on to Bitcoin, you might want to ask yourself: are you prepared to lose all you have gained?
The truth is no one knows what bitcoin will do in relation to fiat. That said, from what I've seen the pattern isn't as he describes. Follow the halving cycles not the price movement. Then you have to factor in the state actions people are expecting Trump to take. Those will affect things as well.
The biggest flaw here is the focus on price instead of utility. This guy clearly doesn't understand that aspect.
Why I’m Sounding The Alarm: With the U.S. facing the real possibility of a recession in 2025, and Bitcoin’s history of plummeting during market turmoil (don’t forget the 63% drop during Covid), it’s time to be honest with ourselves. Bitcoin is not the secure asset it’s been made out to be. If you’re still betting the farm on it, you might want to seriously think again. Don’t let the hype and promises of easy riches fool you. The crash could be coming a lot sooner than you think.
He mentions the crash during covid but doesn't mention the massive increase. This post isn't all bad but missed the point massively
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 9h
The Bitcoin Dilemma: I’ve been following Bitcoin for years, and I’m seeing a deeply troubling pattern. People want it both ways: they dream of Bitcoin soaring 10% in a single day, filling their pockets overnight, but they also want it to act like gold—a steady, reliable asset to turn to in times of crisis. But here’s the reality: Bitcoin is wild and unpredictable. It can rocket to the moon, yes—but it can also plummet down like a stone. If you're in this for the long haul, you’re in for a rollercoaster ride that could have you reaching for the valium.
This is fair but is more of a description of fiat minded humans that will learn some hard lessons. Once you really understand what bitcoin is... you don't think about bitcoin in this way.
This guy gets so close to something and then misses it. Bitcoin is like gold in many ways. But imagine a better gold was discovered that doesn't have many of the problems of gold. What would happen? Well people would speculate on its value. That's what is happening now. Even those of us that aren't traders. We are speculating that bitcoin is the best money. No matter what we believe others don't agree so until they change their mind the purchasing power of bitcoin is limited. As more of bitcoin's utility is demonstrated more people will see it as valuable. This will make it more desirable and those that saw this fact earlier will be rewarded.
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 9h
"safe-haven"
This is a straw man. Been thinking about the market price system and speculation as a market good lately. When we in bitcoin say bitcoin is a safe-haven it is not the market price that is being referred to. Its the fact that the supply is capped at 21 million. The market price is simply a snapshot in time of what the market thinks about bitcoin. Most of the world doesn't even understand the basics of bitcoin. Its like a new element that the world doesn't yet understand but has massive utility for mankind. Any responsible bitcoiner will tell a no-coiner to be humble and don't expect to SELL your bitcoin for fiat.
There are plenty of people that DO think about bitcoin in fiat terms alone. They just wanna make more fiat. Unlike myself, their goal is not less fiat more bitcoin. This isn't a popular opinion in some bitcoin circles but in order for bitcoin to meet its potential for humanity a critical mass of humanity needs to understand its value. That isn't gonna happen over-night. I don't think bitcoin's volatile purchasing power will stabilize in the near future. Its gonna take a long time.
The other "safe-haven" aspect is that I alone have the keys to my money. I don't need a third party. No government can yoink my money out of my "bank". Bitcoin is not dependent on elections or nation states. IMO its the safest asset ever invented.
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22 sats \ 8 replies \ @Satosora 12h
Some people want bitcoin to fail because they missed the bus. The only way they can cement that they are right is by lashing out like this. Yes, it has dropped, and it has risen. Stocks do the same, but bitcoin has been overcoming stocks. Its just a matter of time before people realize that they can still get on the bus and change their opinion.
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Lol yeah this is such a shallow assessment.
Over the past 7 years, Bitcoin has dropped more than 50% FIVE TIMES.
Yeah, but it's also been up over every single 4 year period.
Fwiw, he's at least right that treating bitcoin as a way to make more fiat is a bad idea , haha
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11 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satosora 12h
I think it is important to see these kind of findings once in a while. To keep our perspective in check. People still dont realize that it is still very early. But no matter what, bitcoin is 1sat=1sat.
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0 sats \ 5 replies \ @kepford 9h
Its truly amazing to me how people can grow up in a capitalist system and still seemly not understand markets and prices. Its really wild to see.
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20 sats \ 4 replies \ @kepford 9h
You know... they took economics at university like I did. Complete nonsense. That has to be it.
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65 sats \ 3 replies \ @Satosora 9h
I think that economics base is very important, though. If you didnt have it, would you be able to see the difference between fiat and bitcoin? It gives you a solid base on which to form your own thoughts.
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20 sats \ 2 replies \ @kepford 9h
Ha, I should be clear. They took modern Keynesian econ. When I discovered Mises and Rothbard through Ron Paul, Tom Woods, and Bob Murphy economics began to make sense.
If everyone one just read Economics in One Lesson it would correct so many false ideas propagated in culture.
Economics is very important. What I learned in college was bullshit. I thought it was at the time but didn't have a good alternative until finding alternative schools of thought.
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Throwing back to this post by @pillar
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44 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satosora 8h
Pillar with operation saylor....amazing. And actually publishing the results month in and month out. He does good work!
Bitcoin at 30k again? That cheap? Hell ya LFG!!!
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