The S&P 500 has nearly erased its post-election gains, as inflation fears weigh on market optimism surrounding Trump’s proposed tax cuts and deregulation. But what impact can we expect from the incoming administration’s policies on the markets?To assist in this analysis, the following graphic compares the performance of various sectors during the Trump (2017–2021) and Biden (2021–2025) presidencies. The data, based on a CNBC analysis of FactSet price information, uses closing prices as of January 3, 2025.
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17 sats \ 1 reply \ @tomlaies 20 Jan
I think this data isn't fair because Trumps first term ended after the covid crash and Bidens term began at the bottom of the covid crash.
Adjusting for this externality would be unfair pi-hacking but it would favor Trump more overall. Trump would benefit in the technology sector. Biden would benefit in healthcare and consumer staple sectors.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @justin_shocknet 9h
Yea the data is useless, also it's moronic to think Biden was actually governing... we can't know exactly who pulled the strings or their objectives
Looking forward, we can take MAGA at its word the the US will re-industrialize and waste less, that's good for companies that actually build things and make the steel to build them, bad for the Accentures/McKinsey like firms, and big pharma that launder money...
Defense launders a lot of money too but NatSec is a MAGA priority... so thtat's a mixed bag... would be nice to be able to long Anduril and short Raytheon in a pair trade
Transportation will be a big one, that favors Tesla's autonomy at the expense of zombie car companies like Stellanis and GM
If the US makes more and wastes less that's ultimately deflationary though, short it all? oh wait but the system can't withstand deflation without collapse thus necessitating printing, so where does that printing go?
The deeper the thought on these things the dumber it seems to tie up capital on anything other than Bitcoin because the cross-currents are insane. At least Trump speaks to the price of Bitcoin like he does the stock market price, he's knows Bitcoin's price is a measure of peoples ability to save...
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