After listening to Walker's pod about the 4th turning, I researched the previous events that occurred, on or around 80 year intervals.

If you're unaware of the "Fourth Turning" it refers to a theory of historical cycles developed by William Strauss and Neil Howe.

This theory suggests that history in the West, progresses through cycles of roughly 80 to 100 years, each ending with a crisis.

These turnings usually resulted in a period of major upheaval, where societies are rebuilt or reformed, often involving significant events like wars or economic depressions.

So obviously the most recent 80 years in the past is the second war war which followed the great depression.

Let's go back 80 years again and we have the American civil war.

And then, the American revolution.

Further back we switch to Great Britain where William of Orange and his wife Mary II overthrew King James II, leading to a constitutional shift with the Bill of Rights.

Another cycle and we have the English civil war.

And finally when the British defeated the Spanish Armada.

So according to the timeline laid out by Strauss and Howe, we should already be in the Crisis phase, as they anticipated this turning to begin around the early 2000s and peak in the 2020s.

Since we're now in 2025, by their theory, we're not just entering but should be in the absolute bat shit crazy zone!

Thinking of major events like, 9/11, Iraq/Afghanistan, Hurricane Katrina, global financial crisis, Bitcoin (have to mention that for obvious reasons)

And then there's lots of events following but it feels like a blur until Covid and then kind of the same, it's like we've been living in this weird different timeline.

It's a completely different feel to the 70s and 80s if you can remember those days, it's like nothing happened then, or is that me looking back through rose tinted glasses?!

So are we in the fourth turning? Or do you think it's going to get worse?

Ukraine/Russia, Israel, Palestine escalates?

Global financial crisis 2.0 with bells on top?

Cyber war, energy war, information war, data war??

view all related items

70 sats \ 0 replies \ @zapsammy 16h

i think that for people who are aware of the sh!tshow and the solutions, the 4th turning is nothing but a script. in fact, if you look at the world on the periphery, like the private farmer or a mountaineer, i think he has no idea that there is a cycle taking place, until he ventures into the center of the city.

megalomaniacs love rituals, cycles, prophecies (that are their own) and it looks like they try really hard to stay on schedule - they usually are, because it's merely a matter of how many fiat money-units have to be printed for the orchestration of events.

the problem with this coming crisis is that the theatre is rapidly losing participants. so not only they are paying people to play out the script, but they also have to pay them to stay on the stage in the first place.

i think opting out of the show will become, in due course, as easy as taking the eyes off the blue-light screen and taking out the ear-buds. at some point participation will literally be rewarded with screen-time tokens and/or ear-time tokens, and people will be captivated by this ritual.

u can see this trend in young children who cry as soon as their ipad is taken away, and who experience anxiety as soon as the soothing music stops. one must train hard and train everyone else to avoid falling into this behavior in the first place.

45 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 20h

Good book, I enjoyed it.

Supposedly we are in a fourth turning. Things will probably get worse before they get better but who knows.

70 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 21h

I've also had trouble pinning down exactly where we are supposed to be in the cycle. For one thing, it's a generational theory, so longer generations should mean longer cycles.

Basically, we have major turning points in American history around 1780, 1860, and 1940, so 2020 would be roughly the expected year of shit hitting the fan.

I also try to think through the whole "Hard times, create strong men. Strong men create..." thing.

If we lengthen 10's and 20's: Weak men creating hard times 30's and 40's: Hard times creating strong men 50's and 60's: Strong men creating good times 70's and 80's: Good times creating weak men 90's and 00's: Weak men creating hard times 10's and 20's: Hard times creating strong men

Does that seem right? It kind of fits, if you squint and don't overanalyze it.

If so, we're about to have a generation of "strong men" creating "good times". That feels believable and might imply that we are those men and bitcoin will usher in those "good times".

43 sats \ 0 replies \ @dingding541 OP 21h

I see it as a useful framework for understanding historical patterns, remembering it's not going to be exactly as it was before.

But using your modelling of 10s & 20s

30s & 40s definitely gonna be lit

And obviously I didn't labour the point enough but Bitcoin will be that disruptor of money, I think it's time machine as Satoshi brilliantly invented, is set to do what it does.

What we're seeing now, which is quite astonishing is the rate of AI expansion, that could also be like feeding the gremlins after midnight