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202 sats \ 0 replies \ @SimpleStacker 14h \ on: Why prediction markets aren’t popular oracle
Not that I disagree, but here are some potential counterarguments.
  1. Natural demand could come from hedgers and speculators.
    Prediction markets allow you to hedge against an outcome that would be detrimental to you. They also allow you to express a belief that you think is undervalued by the market (speculation, not gambling)
  2. Zero-sum is not a necessary condition.
    Especially for longer-run outcomes, the market maker could invest some of the proceeds and give a rate of return to the bettors. It will probably be less than other rates you could get, due to fees, but some would be willing to pay.
  3. Prediction markets could monetize data.
    The data generated by prediction markets, especially if the volume is large, could be very useful for many different people. Revenues generated from this data can be used to subsidize the betting markets themselves.
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