I agree it attracts gamblers. My bets are coming from my gambling budget. I would never touch my cold sats for this. I'd argue that maybe bitcoin only prediction markets are less likely to succeed as there are more degen gamblers in the shitcoin world. But then we have ordinals, so maybe that's a wrong assumption.

I also agree with the fact i prefer short term markets. I don't like too much to lock away too many sats for the whole of 2025 for instance before a market resolves. Even if i can close my position before resolution. But i have some long term ones, so it really depends on the market.

I think the zero sum argument is only valid for completely efficient markets with high liquidity. I am particularly drawn to the markets where i can tilt the odds myself and benefit from some mispriced odds.

So i guess maybe as a real tool to predict the future, they are not as great as initially hoped or expected. But there is definitely a market for it. And some markets have been pretty good at predicting election outcomes, no? Even when traditional tools failed to predict the outcomes.

Agree on this.

What say you, @mega_dreamer?