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American Exceptionalism, LFG! rah-rah, 'Murica (Bloomberg, John Authers)www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-01-13/us-exceptionalism-doubting-america-can-still-cost-you-a-lot-of-money
1098 sats \ 11 comments \ @denlillaapan 19h econ
I wrote a piece for Human Progress in 2023 about all the ways in which America is flourishing. Yes, you read that right; doesn't really sound like that, either in the disaster-prone media or the Bitcoin bubble ("everything is doomed!")
In this newsletter, Authers points out that America is doing pretty OK — GDP wise, CPI wise, unemployment wise. Compared to itself and its recent past as well as European peers, the U.S. is crushing it. rah-rah, MUUUURICA!
Ever since the Global Financial Crisis broke out in 2007, it has been folly not to invest in the US. Rather than bet on US outperformance to revert to the mean, as I have counseled on any number of occasions, it’s been better to heed the advice of Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani and the team at Goldman’s Sachs’ investment strategy group. They keep recommending going overweight America, and keep getting proved right.
...and:
The valuation gap with the rest of the world is much narrower once the weight of giant American tech stocks is accounted for — and in any case, valuation doesn’t help at all with timing the market. And while the US remains preeminent, it retains greater freedom of action. That’s particularly important in the light of the latest jobs data.
In financial markets, most of the excess return of American stocks comes from the Magnificent 7. A friend sent me this chart a few days ago (which is profits of underlying companies, not stock prices/returns):
And for fun he threw in the latest university ranking. Not blowing smoke up my own ass (ACADEMIC ASSMILKING, WHERE IS DARTH?! hashtag recovering academic), but I like winning; being #1 is nice. https://www.timeshighereducation.com/world-university-rankings/latest/world-ranking
Anyway, nice read.
non-paywalled here: https://archive.md/zz6YK
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107 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 18h
I think American doomerism is partly due to disbelief that other nations are managing to do even dumber stuff to their economies than we are.
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58 sats \ 1 reply \ @denlillaapan OP 18h
That's so goddamn true
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 9h
Meanwhile China has enjoyed 50 years of rapidly growing trade surpluses while USA has operated over 50 years of growing trade deficits. China is building global infrastructure while USA infrastructure is crumbling. USA cannot compete with China in trade on almost all manufactured goods and commodities or infrastructure construction. It is only in banking (debt) and military hardware (death) that USA retains an advantage.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 1h
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2025/01/26/top-uk-universities-look-expand-use-of-open-book-exams-to-help-grades-of-minorities/
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0 sats \ 6 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 9h
China has won the trade war. Trump admits this by applying tariffs which increase the cost of imports for US citizens and businesses. Americas USD hegemony is where the bulk of its GDP comes from...that and military exports. USA exports are primarily composed of debt and death.
But USA cannot produce manufactured goods competitive to the Chinese in most and ever increasing product types. China dominates the production of manufactured goods and dominates the purchase of commodities from which those manufactured goods are made.
All nations on earth are now reliant upon the Chinese economy for trade - for the cheapest manufactured goods and for the sale of commodity exports. This was once the position of America but it has long since not been.
The US advantage is in its control over legacy protocols and institutions like SWIFT, the IMF, World Bank etc. Americas dominance is primarily in the tertiary financialised economy...and even that is declining. More and more trade is denominated in Yuan and is not even recorded via the IMF/World Bank because they don't get the data. China is building an alternative trade payments network that operates independently of US controlled institutions.
So, China has won the trade war and the USA is not going to reverse that easily or probably ever. China is now building the tertiary level infrastructures upon its trade dominance. The China Development Bank already finances significantly more international projects than the World Bank.
The tide is going out on USA and the incoming tide carries the new dominant economy of China.
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0 sats \ 5 replies \ @tomlaies 6h
China has lost the trade war. Their economy is stagnating on a medium emerging markets level and are currently trying a last ditch effort by state subsidizing EV industry.
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0 sats \ 4 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 6h
5% growth is stagnating? Dream on.
China produce EV batteries at half the cost Tesla and western factories can make them for. China produce solar panels, phones and most consumer goods at a price the west cannot compete with.
China build new infrastructure at a price no other nation can compete with.
China build half of the worlds new shipping because they can do it more efficiently- the US builds less than 1% of new ships. Where are most Bitcoin mining machines made? China.
Why is China building most new major global infrastructure? Because its more efficient.
Where was the device you are now browsing the internet made? Where was your furniture and clothes and most of the goods in your house made? China.
Why does Trump impose tariffs to protect US manufacturers like his sponsor Musk? Because US manufacturing is inefficient and cannot compete and US politics is now pure cronyism.
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0 sats \ 3 replies \ @tomlaies 2h
Fake regime propaganda numbers. Real data by Keqiang index estimate Chinas gdp closer to 2.4-2.8 percent. Together with imploding wealth from imploding property sector it's plus minus zero since 2016-ish
You're only existing industries. For growth you need new growth, not stuff that has been there since 2017
The communists are brainwashing you. Be careful.
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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 2h
Why is Trump putting tariffs on Chinese cars?
You have been brainwashed already with US propaganda ignoring the reality of US decline.
Who is paying for Evergreen? https://fortune.com/2024/02/08/evergrande-liquidation-99-percent-haircut-hedge-funds/
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @tomlaies 2h
Why is Trump putting tariffs on Chinese cars?
Because he's an idiot. And because the chinese car subsidies are artificial cheap by stealing from the chinese people via inflation and taxation
You have been brainwashed already with US propaganda ignoring the reality of US decline.
I believe in american exceptionalism. The US is exceptional. It is G-ds chosen country.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 1h
Now you are being flippant?
Or... showing the true depth of your brainwashing!
Chinese manufactured goods are significantly cheaper than those of other manufacturing nations because of Chinas scale and its deliberate development of core infrastructure services provision.
Chinas mixed economy enables this as once did the US and other western economies before they were captured by rentseeking corporate parasites under the cloak of neoliberalism.
Jewish bankers own the US government.
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