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I'm reading Tae Kim's new The Nvidia Way and there's this FOMO tidbit about activist investor Starboard Value.
Obviously everyone is an excellent investor in hindsight, and Bitcoiners have plenty of stories like this (oooh, mhy ghood, akschually if I had only seen/kept/held/bought it back then when I had the chance!), but this is still pretty painful:
In 2013, Starboard Value acquired over 4 million shares of Nvidia, worth about $62m at the time. Nvidia was a little bit in a slump, had some 3bn in net cash on its balance sheets (out of 8bn market cap), and SV wanted some changed in management + distribution to shareholders. (if a company can't find profitable ventures for cash, it should give the money back to shareholders.) While Kim tells us that his sources all testify that the relationship was never very antagonistic, after Nvidia had made some concessions, its stock price rose some 20%.
Starboard Value thanked them kindly—and sold their shares.
If I did the math correctly, those shares should have been worth some $25 billion today (billion with a b). Fuck, Nvidia shares fell some 15% today in true bitcoin fashion, so make that $21bn. For those of you keeping track, that's missing out on about 28,000% return. Ouch!

"We should never have exited the position," Smith tells Kim in a painfully dramatic chapter ending.

I'm reminded of that Baron Rothschild quote ("I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon")—and also of the Benjamin Graham (hypocritical?) advice since I just read that book (#836811, #851506).
Nobody can know the future, and stories like these are always told in hindsight. But still: I dunno, man. I think I'd just quit after such a miss... like, nothing you ever do for the rest of your investing career is ever going to make up for that.
Like giving up 10,000 bitcoin for a pizza in, like, 2010.
Hindsight is always 20/20. About the 10,000 btc for the pizza, that was all it was worth at that time. SV took their profit, and their return was good enough for them, that is why they sold.
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But for every story like this, there's another story where you didn't sell and then the company tanked and went bankrupt.
Investing ain't easy. If it was, we'd all be billionaires.
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no, pleeeenty more. It's super-asymmetric -- more akin to lottery winners vs all who bought at ticket.
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When you should of been buying Nvidia was the same time you should of been buying BTC too
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nah, much later.
Sketch it out, but the model would have been "buy bitcoin from 2010-2020" and "buy Nvidia from 2022-today"
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Thinking too hard or fretting too much maketh the monkey mind stronger.
Trusting the big, glacially-paced truths and investing there has always worked for me. That and radical optimism.
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I thought the Rothschild quote was: buy when there is blood in the streets
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yes, also! ;)
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He said more than one thing.
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how can you be so sure?
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wise observation
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