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I try to think through what the Bitcoin price "knows" that I don't.
Obviously, there are endless correct answers to that, but I specifically want to know why my valuation is so much higher than the market's.
Again, there are lots of possible answers, but I do think the willingness to hold risk is part of it. That's not me knowing anything that anyone else doesn't. It's just that with my low time preference the volatility doesn't bother me.
There's also the part of EMH where you can arbitrage superior knowledge. In the case of bitcoin, I'm essentially betting on my whole (minority) worldview being correct. I'm comfortable doing so, because it took a lot of study and reflection, that others haven't bothered to do, to arrive here.
The other element of EMH that I think about is that everyone has to be sufficiently capitalized for it to work. We may be on a corner where the people who are on my side don't have anymore capital to pour into bitcoin and therefor the price is waiting for other people to be convinced. In other words, the intensive margin is tapped out, which is inefficient.
There's also the part of EMH where you can arbitrage superior knowledge. In the case of bitcoin, I'm essentially betting on my whole (minority) worldview being correct. I'm comfortable doing so, because it took a lot of study and reflection, that others haven't bothered to do, to arrive here. 100%
The last bit about EMH is critical, too. The flipside of inability to short certain assets (i.e., Shiller has made the case that property prices aren't incorporating all info since there are no good ways to short houses/put downward pressure on housing prices).
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