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The investor Bill Gross, founder of PIMCO, has a few things to say in the Financial Times. He's had a long career in financial markets and
... now is as good a time as any to look back on some of the lessons from my investing career that have served me well.
Alright, exciting—let's get some self-indulging secret sauce from one of investing's greats (#851506). What I often wonder such these self-centered, backward-looking storytellers is whether they reflect something real and true—or just a period effect during America's pre-bitcoin century (#836811).
American capitalism is in relative terms more reminiscent of the wild west than some economies. It allows for risk taking — backstopped of course in many ways by government and central bank policies but flexible enough to promote the modern entrepreneur in the quest for a profit.
OK, fair enough. So far, nothing spicy.
Then he talks about Warren Buffett and risks/benefits of leverage, suggesting that leverage when used right is good: by tapping into long-term capital via insurance companies (basically uncallable money liability #869415), "Buffett has shown that time is a vital third dimension in financial architecture."
all money managers and certainly bond managers have a responsibility that goes beyond the accumulation of assets, the earning of fees, and outperformance of the competition. They lend money to companies, countries and continents, and what they do affects the fortunes and the lives of hundreds of millions if not billions of people.
Uh-hu, okay; not really, but right...
And then the final kicker is a story about his license plate, referring to something in the bond world+subtly hinting to his boss, that others around him interpreted differently:
Experience has shown again and again that it pays me to listen to such views and that people watching is key to financial markets. So as it turns out, one of my most important lessons in seeking to master markets came from a reflection in a petrol station forecourt.

Yeah, some famous people write shit in the echelon of financial journalism that is, um, not fucking good enough.

Ridiculous.

non-paywalled here: https://archive.md/lA14s (but really, don't bother!)
I feel all he said was time in the market is better than timing the market. When you boil everything down. And it is still the same with bitcoin.
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yup yup...
but we don't need an FT piece for that... we already know the Buffett quote!
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I also seem to remember him saying bitcoin was probably rat poison squared.
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or Charles Munger
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9 sats \ 1 reply \ @Satosora 9h
Did you hear that guy died? Was it him or buffet who said it?
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I think it was Buffet but they both thought bitcoin was a terrible investment etc
4 years
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I did read it even though you gave us strict instructions not to, because I just learnt about creeping determinism yesterday and thought that this was a good example that illustrates it haha
Creeping determinism is the sense that grows on us, in retrospect, that what has happened was actually inevitable. It turns unexpected events into expected ones. The occurrence of an event increases its reconstructed probability and makes it less surprising than it would have been had the original probability been remembered.
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ah man, didn't know that phrase but I really don't like what it denotes. It's a verifiably BAAAD THING!
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Got the term from Malcolm Gladwell’s “What the Dog Saw and other adventures”. Fascinating reading
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Did you watch the Fallout show?
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nope! don't even know about it. Tl;dr?
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It's a tv adaptation of the famous post apocalyptic video game series.
Some of the story takes place before the end of the world and some of the oligarchs are really enamored of this idea that they can use time as their ultimate competitive advantage.
I don't want to spoil anything, because I'd love if you watched it (only eight episodes or so) and gave your thoughts.
However, some of us watched it when it came out and were blown away by the stupidity of the master plan, but I felt like there might be something interesting to unpack in it. Then, I forgot all about that until just now.
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