I bullied/pestered/incited @mega_dreamer into making an SN post prediction market for us a while back, and now we have a nice little bet going (#850716). Maybe we can supplement our dwindling daily rewards with some gambling, eh?!

I have been open with owning the "No" contract for this—numbers don't check out—and I mean to keep a monthly tab on the progress (plus buying some more each time). So I've pulled some numbers into a little spreadsheet and will share it with the Stackers now and again.

To hit the goal, SN needs to add 1,550 items a day on average. For January, we added 40,070 items (this inclusive!) for an average of 1,293 a day—falling short by quite a bit.

What's worse is that the pace is slowing down. When I joined a few months ago, SN was doing 1,400 items a day or so: In the 107(!) days I've been here, the SN count has advanced about 147,201 posts, for a daily rate of 1,375. That's quite a bit above where we are/have been recently, and well below where we have to be for the bet to come through.

If I count right, at the end of today we are 8.5% of the way to NYE 2025, but we've only made 7.05% progress on the target. Relatively speaking we're slightly less behind than two weeks ago when I last made an update (#850716) but still not great. (Wallet troubles and semi-shitcoinery ain't helping...#869415)

There's been very little activity in the bet, unfortunately, but so far I'll take the cheap sats for as long as they're on offer: https://beta.predyx.com/market/stacker-news-hit-14m-items-in-2025

Anyway, very fun to track. Happy Friday, folks!