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27 sats \ 7 replies \ @028559d218 4 Feb \ parent \ on: While Democrats Sleep (Financial Times, Edward Luce) Politics_And_Law
If Mr Trump alienates much of the rest of the world (including America's trading partners) don't that just push more and more people to Bitcoin?
Who wants to hold American bonds now?
So far, it looks like his targets are acquiescing almost immediately.
I still expect dollarization to precede bitcoinization. We're seeing how fragile the other currencies are.
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To me it just looks like 'ya sure we'll give the Americans more "border security" or whatever they want...'
But secretly it's like 'wow we can't trust the Americans' any more
We need a new plan
I don't think they're acquiescing so much as just... pretending to
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Regarding border security (which is what most of his tariffs have been about so far) I doubt anyone at the nation state level really sees Trumps request as that outlandish.
If we were neighbors and I was allowing criminals to use my territory as a staging ground to invade your property. Do you think it would be reasonable for you to ask me to stop? Would it be reasonable for you to threaten repercussions if I refused?
All of this was normal expectations from the beginning of time until 2010. The last 10 or so years have been a historical aberration.
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Add in to your thought experiment that your neighbor has been doing lots of chores for you and patronizing your business. Might your neighbor stop doing those things, until you cleaned up your act?
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That could be, but we've also already had Trump issue threats of tariffs towards anyone moving away from the dollar.
I'd say he's made the tariff threats credible, at this point, and losing access to the American market would be much more costly for most countries than just complying.
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If they can't sell to the Americans (or the Europeans) they'll just sell to the Chinese.
Case study - Russia after the Ukraine sanctions.
The US doesn't have the power and influence it did 30 years ago, nothing like that. And I'm not sure Mr Trump's threats will have a net positive influence anymore
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It's still a huge loss in demand. We can reasonably infer that there's some marginal loss, otherwise they'd already be selling to China instead of America.
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