Bitcoin's success is in the eye of the beholder, much to the dismay of many there's no consensus as to what Bitcoin is or what its goals are. Those are personal projection and nothing more, what you're really asking yourself is, "am I being realistic?"

For example, your entire framing can be undone with one different assumption. Assume a faction within government created it, what does that mean for it's success and the implied role in the world for it?

The definition of adoption is another assumption altogether, as it's mere existence has impacts beyond its immediate users. Do nuclear weapons prevent war if they're never used?