S&P looked at three scenarios: the first where European nations increase defence spending to the current NATO GDP-weighted average of 2.67% of GDP; a second where they match the current U.S. level of 3.3%; and a third where it jumps to the 5% of GDP Trump has called for. Scenario one would mean the EU as a whole increasing defence spending by $242 billion a year. In scenario three, it would rise by as much as $875 billion.

It is not just a question of the money lent but also interest. According to preliminary estimates, “the total cost for the period 2028 to 2034, covering both the capital and the interest rates, is now estimated at between €140 billion and €168 billion (current prices) depending on whether repayment is spread with an equal yearly amount or with an equal share of gross national income (GNI).”