Years later, after I've posted my January 2023, 2024 and mid 2024, I can still see top callers everywhere, at every local resistance, at every bearish narrative
So I've decided to atack this particular topic: YOU WON'T BE ABLE TO TIME THE PERFECT TOP
TL;DR of my view: H1 2025 higher highs -> H2 2025, lower highs
As per usual,
1. We're starting with the S&P index
Since 2023, I've projected the potential top (not cycle top, but a mini-cycle, into the 2030+ cycle top) at around 5800-6100$ area (1.618 fib)
2 years later we are here. But what comes next, my base case, is that from this 6k area (we maybe go 2-500$ more, doesn't matter) we start the downtrend into Q2-Q3, and before Q4 everyone will be bullish again, just like in the last 2 years, but everyone will be dissapointed
I think a lower high on the S&P will be the case.
Now, the case with FED's rates, as I was saying for a long time, 3-5 rate cuts are not bearish, but after that we should watch when the CPI creeps back up from the lows (it started) and The FED starts to pause rates again!!
2019: we had 2 FOMCs with rates paused - December and February (we all know what happend in March 2020)
Now: higher rates, maybe a 3-fold pause is due.
IF THIS IS THE CASE, and another global shitstorm happens, everyone will look at the pandemic event, rates, probably some trillions printed, and will say the REAL BULLMARKET starts, into H2 2025, because we dodged the bullet again
And that is when the dissapointments start. Lower high in Q4, going down more into 2026 - everyone rekt (and then the real fun starts!!)
In this part of the cycle, I'm not interested in the DXY or yields anymore, I'm only interested in the stupid euphoria that comes next.
2. So, let's get to Bitcoin
When rates paused in 2019, after 3 cuts, BTC had a 63% rally, during the soft landing narrative - BUT - that was a different part of the cycle, we are now later into the cycle than back then
So if my base case happen, BTC has a little room left, based on fibs (we are now at 1.272), 1.4 is at 127k, 1.618 is at 173k (it can also not touch it like in the last cycle)
If rates are cu 25-50 bps from March, then I would not worry and the cycle could be longer, which means I stay spot for longer a build a bigger cash position.
But contrary to my 2023 and 2024 FULL BEAR HITLER, which you all witnessed, for me, now it's time start building a FULL HITLER CASH POSITION, as euphoria will start kicking in with this "soft landing" and other narratives.
I think that if rates are cut aggressively, like 100-200 bps in one FOMC, you know this comes with something on the side. Something not good - I WILL NEVER BECOME A DOOMSTER EITHER WAY!!
And if a global event is coming along with this, everyone will scream BUY BUY BUY - REAL BULL IN THE WINTER!! LOW RATES LIKE IN 2020 BRO - and they will all be wrong. Let's see.
My focus rn will not be on SPX and BTC, ranges are on the charts, my focus is on ETH and alts, because every cycle ends in euphoria, and all I see is scared little girls on Twitter.
- The most important chart in crypto XRP is also a good gauge, but I'm focusing on this one: ETHBTC - some good analysts on Twitter pointed out that range, which is a good confluence with my simple use of fib retracements
This is a good example of how people follow narratives and forget to look on different charts to correlate how liquidity is moving in the whole asset class.
This means ETH betas will go ballistic - if you also watch the SOLETH chart (which I also posted a long time ago) you will see that it outperformed for 2 years straight - next phase of the cycle, DOWN!
Cycle targets for ETH - dunno man, put some fibs up and see - I do not own it, I jumped directly to betas, de-fi shit, gaming, AI, memes, because I've already made most of my money with BTC since the bottom
- Total 3 chart - what most fail to understand is that BTC.D looks toppish, but they don't look at total crypto market cap without BTC and ETH, and watch some big caps like: DOT AVAX FIL SAND LTC UNI LINK HBAR etc.
Big players that are not even at the last bull market top, with the TOTAL3 at it. The only thing that pumped in crypto was vaporware tokens, full speculation, rotation from other protocols, and that's it
So my base case for alts, in the next phase, liquidity from outside is coming for eth, de-fi, utility, big players etc. - just watch the XRP chart and you will understand!
Moreover, I think total3 will catch up BTCs moves:
So maybe, just maybe, because everyone is a BTC maxi rn, it's time to focus on strong alts! BTC is doing this pa at a new ATH, while Total3 lags. Now we have trad-fi catalysts for coins (ETFs requests everywhere)
Also maybe, just maybe, if a lower high is on the table for H2 2025, perhaps Total3 makes a higher high - will see
And actually the liquidity is coming for trusted protocols, not from degens, but from institutional investors - the flood gates are already set (ETH ETF)
As always, my charts will not happen with 100% accuracy, some things will be different, but for me, all that matters is positioning: now out 40% from BTC, rotated to alts, 10% cash position which will increase gradually this year (btw I had almost 0% cash positions in 2023 and 2024, with all the money I made, I just reaccumulated more and more).
My posts are public, never deleted a tweet - maybe you should revisit my last market views and see how things developed, to understand that I'm adapting my play as time goes by.
Time > price
I will update my view in the summer maybe.
God bless you! Be a winner, with or without me!