bitcoin

The Hidden Top: my 2025 market view

kurszusz

S&P 500: The author forecasts the S&P 500 will reach a top around 5800-6100 in the near term, with a potential minor upward movement. Following this, they expect a downtrend into Q2-Q3 2025, with a lower high towards Q4, leading to disappointment and a potential downturn into 2026.

Federal Reserve's Rates: After several rate cuts, the author predicts a pause by the FED, similar to the 2019 scenario. However, they caution that if aggressive rate cuts occur (100-200 bps), it could signal an underlying issue, but won't necessarily lead to a bullish trend like 2020.

Bitcoin: The author suggests Bitcoin could have some room for growth (up to 127k-173k based on Fibonacci levels) but views the market as reaching a later cycle compared to previous years. They recommend staying in spot positions and building a cash position while observing the market.

Altcoins and Ethereum: The focus shifts to Ethereum (ETH) and altcoins. With a rotation away from BTC, the author sees opportunities in altcoins, particularly those related to decentralized finance (DeFi), gaming, and other strong protocols. They note that the liquidity is moving from speculative tokens to more trusted protocols and institutional investors, like ETH ETFs.

Market Strategy: The author has rotated 40% of their portfolio out of BTC into altcoins and holds 10% in cash, planning to gradually increase this cash position. They emphasize adapting to market changes and positioning for future cycles, prioritizing long-term strategy over short-term price movements.

In conclusion, the author's view is to focus on positioning for future market cycles, with a shift from BTC to altcoins and a cautious outlook for Q2-Q3 2025 and beyond.