The pulse of the U.S. economy quickened in February as the service sector notched stronger growth, according to fresh data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
The non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed to 53.5, up from January’s 52.8, signaling expansion above the critical 50 threshold. Economists surveyed by industry analysts had pegged the figure slightly lower at 52.9, making this a welcome surprise. Key sub-indices painted a vibrant picture: new orders jumped to 52.2 from 51.3, employment ticked up to 53.9 from 52.3, while production dipped marginally to 54.4 from 54.5. Notably, the prices sub-index soared to 62.6 from 60.4, hinting at brewing inflationary pressures.
Meanwhile, the U.S. industrial sector kicked off the year with a bang. The Commerce Department reported a robust 1.7% month-over-month rise in factory orders for January—the sharpest increase since July last year, aligning with economists’ expectations. December’s numbers were also revised upward, showing a milder decline of 0.6% compared to the initially reported 0.9%. Durable goods orders, a bellwether for long-term investment, rose 3.2% per a revised estimate, edging past the preliminary 3.1% gain. Excluding transportation, however, orders for durable goods held steady, indicating a mixed but broadly positive trend.
This wave of upbeat data signals a strengthening business cycle, with macro indicators trending upward. Adding to the momentum, the U.S. dollar has softened against major currencies, while the credit cycle appears to be gaining steam. For risk assets and Bitcoin, this is good news.