For a realistic assessment of the situation regarding a potential conflict between Europe and Russia, it helps to look at the markets. Some key factors: if the markets were to anticipate a hot war, we would expect the following:
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The US dollar would explode against the euro, which it isn’t doing. The forex market currently sees no danger of escalation; on the contrary, fast capital is seeking the boom in European stock markets and letting the DXY drop.
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Interest rate spreads would need to explode, as the bond market would shift capital from Europe to America. This would mean US interest rates would fall dramatically while their European counterparts would explode. Here, we see smaller movements that we can still disregard.
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The physical movement of gold is somewhat concerning to me. The fact that gold is being conveniently withdrawn from London, Switzerland, and the USA raises some worries for me.
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One of the guaranteed indicators of an escalation are capital flow controls in the EU. This would lead us to assume an escalation. At this moment there's nothing to see here.
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Energy prices. They would anticipatorily explode, which is also not the case.
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Credit Default Swaps of EU countries would explode higher. They are still calm though.
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You could do the same exercises for the russian side, the Rubel and rates. No signs so far.
Conclusion: Since so far only gold points toward a deepening of the conflict, we’ll remain calm for now and observe the situation and our indicators. I personally still believe that the Europeans, both fiscally and economically, wouldn’t even be capable of sustaining an escalation with Russia without the help of the USA. The markets seem to see through this camouflage for now.