With the most recent corrections, it has been challenging not to empty the fiat account and purchase BTC. The problem we face though is that the dips keep dipping and the dips of the dips dip again, and by the time we hit an amazing discount, like now at around 83k, there’s not much more fiat to be burned to hell and converted to BTC. Some analysists say that using Fibonacci we could reach a retracement that will get the price to 55k, which was where from the most recent bull run has started.

Well, enough of whining about being fiat poor, we must celebrate the dips as big opportunities for accumulation. I have made my biggest purchases in 2018, 2020 and last year when the price stabilized at around 58k and have been DCAing since late 2022 after the FTX crash, where I should had gone all in, but I never had the balls to, unfortunately. I even received a severance check from an employer that year, which was equivalent to a whole coin at the time, and listened to my conservative devil and placed most of it in treasury bonds (I would love to go back in time and choke my 32-year-old self).

My balls are growing bigger with time in relation to buying dips, the price of BTC really doesn’t do anything to my emotions anymore, I obviously smile when it is going up, but not to a point of euphoria, I just think it is nice to see something I truly believe in growing in value, adoption and proving itself. On the downside I just look at it as an opportunity for better accumulation, and now we face another one.

One metric that I have been looking more and more is the Mayer Multiple, which is the relation of the current price with the 200-day average and when this relation is below 1, it usually means that BTC is undervalued. For the DCA this metric doesn’t say anything, obviously, but when thinking about bigger purchases on dips, I believe that it matters and helps me giving more confidence that I am burning fiat for a good price per sats.

At 83k today, the Mayer multiple is at 1.01, so just over the undervalued band. My hand are itching to get some cash from my emergency fund and make a bigger purchase than my regular DCA’s, I have a 9-5, in the education sector so not the most stable job, so I hardy touch my emergency fund, which now sits around 6 months of cost of living, and when I do, I refill it in the next month, but not if I make these purchases. I am single without dependents so, I could really live on water and bread for many months.

I will wait on the price going lower than 70k to act, hopefully we will get there, if not, then I will just maintain the DCA, and be happy - and in 4 years feel like I was stupid for not going all in now that we are at 83k.

What are some of the metrics you guys use if any? Do you also feel stupid not to go all in?