Nicholas Irving is the guest on this Vlad TV show. He is a former US army sniper with I think over 100 confirmed kills in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.
Here he mentions somethings that would make me think the USA could possibly lose a kinetic war with China. His main points are
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China can hack USA. Put us back into the Stone Age where we kill each other for food
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China is well organized and armed a far cry of what USA faced against Afghanistan and Iraq
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Today’s US soldiers sign up to get a paycheck and travel.
Very compelling points. My only pushback is that Iraq and Afghanistan were more operations than total war and USA has way more aircraft carriers than China. Those two counter points may alter power dynamic of the war.