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Every investor knows, or should, that the moment of maximum uncertainty is a time to buy. The only trick, then, is discerning when we’ve reached peak uncertainty.
It's a truth undoubtedly but not everyone knows or believes if there's a science behind judging it. At least not when you're dealing with the times when uncertainty is most volatile.
This article suggests about S&P 500 but this theory is 100% correct for any investment strategy including Bitcoin.
Now to answer if we've peaked the uncertainty (of course macro)?
IMO, the market entered into the zone of uncertainty as soon as Trump came back with more power to the chair of POTUS. The peak however is nowhere close because the impact of Trump's policies is yet to be realised.
I guess we'll peak the uncertainty when the tarrifs by US army will be implemented, and the rests of them start following.
For now (not for Bitcoin), we can hold our horses and wait April 3, 4, 5 for the reaction from other countries.
By then we'll most probably start seeing an environment of indifference towards Trump's policies and that's when the uncertainty will have peaked.
It's a lot easier to gauge whether we're near peak uncertainty than actually at it. Clearly, we're at highly elevated uncertainty right now, so it's a good time to buy whatever long-term assets you feel like buying.
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I definitely agree with you. What I wanna say is that the peak might be near but we entered in the zone 2 months ago. It's just a matter of time, the peak may be tomorrow or in a month or two. For Bitcoin never a bad time and never hold horses, for stocks and commodities we can still wait.
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I'll be all in on bitcoin until its purchasing power is more than 10x what it is now. That's when I'll start considering other investments.
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1 million/BTC exactly same to my notion. I've cancelled all of the sumptuous offers made to me in the recent times.
The real uncertainty peak for stocks and commodities will be when they will be start leaving the fiat standard and accepting to Bitcoin Standard, not together but one by one.
I'll wait till that day when they will start increasing my sats.
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