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10 sats \ 3 replies \ @SimpleStacker 28 Mar \ on: Polymarket, UMA Communities Lock Horns After $7M Ukraine Bet Resolves Politics_And_Law
Yeah, this is pretty bullcrap. If I were a bettor in this market i'd be furious.
Polymarket's own wording says that no qualifying deal had been reached, as of March 24
Which is clearly reflected in the pricing, right before the dispute:
The original resolution wording is actually pretty bad, so I guess in some sense the bettors should have known better than to bet on such vague outcomes. Especially the phrase, "An announcement of a deal will qualify regardless of if/when the deal is enacted." That just seems too loose of a term, announcements could come from many sources, and could be mistaken. It should have relied on a signed document or written press release by US State Department or something.
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Worst case, they should probably determine when the dispute says the market should have resolved to "yes", and refund all bets made after that date, and resolve the market at the last traded price on the supposed resolution date.