Interesting convo — agree with most points here, especially about hardware centralization being an under-discussed threat. Tariffs might temporarily fragment US hashrate, but that’s not decentralization unless it stays fragmented and distributes geographically and politically.

Right now, the economic gravity still pulls miners toward cheap energy, and where regulation is predictable (even if hostile). If tariffs push ASIC manufacturing and mining infra into neutral or even “hostile” jurisdictions to the US, that might be good for Bitcoin’s resilience long term — assuming it doesn’t just consolidate in another state-captured environment like China 2.0.

The real decentralization win would be low-barrier, modular mining at the household level — like that hot water heater idea. If we get to a future where people earn sats from their heating systems or even appliances, pool dominance gets a lot harder, and Bitcoin becomes harder to control by anyone.

Until then, we should be honest that Foundry mining 9 consecutive blocks is a red flag, not just "luck." That kind of consolidation, even if not malicious, erodes trust in the system’s neutrality. Tariffs might ironically help in the short term, but the real solution is intentional hashrate distribution — not just economic drift.